Middle Tennessee vs Arkansas State 11/2/2010

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Middle Tennessee winning 45% of simulations, and Arkansas State 55% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Middle Tennessee commits fewer turnovers in 39% of simulations and they go on to win 58% when they take care of the ball. Arkansas State wins 70% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Dwight Dasher is averaging 54 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (32% chance) then he helps his team win 59%. Derek Lawson is averaging 37 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (22% chance) then he helps his team win 70%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is ARKST +1.5

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